Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) declined for the second consecutive session and dropped by 300 points (-2.61%, the biggest daily decline since 22nd June’ 22) to close at 11,161 levels. The volatility in global markets and the decline in oil prices were the main reasons for the drop in TASI. TASI started the proceedings on a negative note on Sunday and gradually declined to its intraday low of 340 points before reducing some of its losses. The decline was broad-based as all sectors closed in the red, while only 10 stocks managed to achieve positive closing. The drop was led by the Banks (-2.8%), followed by Materials (-2.6%) and Energy (-2.7%) sectors. Index heavyweights, namely Al-Rajhi Bank (-3.3%), Aramco (-2.6%), Saudi Alahli Bank (- 1.7%), pulled the index down the most. Trading activity witnessed an increase in trading volume and value by -9% and -4%, respectively, to reach 128 million shares and 4 billion Saudi riyals. TASI is expected to absorb the shock of the Fed's statements and the impact of the major global markets in the upcoming sessions and may continue in same direction.
Following a chaotic last week, an uneasy trading period awaits investors. The major global indices declined by 4%-6) last week to settle either below bear territory or fresh YTD lows. On the monetary policy front, there are not many events scheduled for next week. The Fed, BoJ, & BOE have reviewed policy rates last week and ECB is due to hold its meeting in late Oct. In the interim, the market will start looking for clues to gauge the extent of economic slow-down, currency depreciation and earnings reports for Sep-end quarter. In the U.S, the data for next week is centered on housing prices and consumer sentiments. The shift in the treasury yield curve last week has already increased the risk of deeper recession in the U.S. Markets may see further downside volatility in near-term given negative momentum and lack of any positive trigger.
In Europe, both Euro (since 2002) and Pound Sterling (since 1985) are trading at historic lows as investors believe the response of central banks to rein in inflation is inadequate. Currency and key indicators for economic growth will likely remain major focus areas in near-term as the region brace up for the energy supply shortages in the winter season. The likely negative news flow can put prices further under pressure.
In Asia, indices will likely absorb the full impact of price action in the U.S on Friday. Important economic data release includes PMI data in China, labour market and Industrial production data in Japan. India’s central bank will also announce the policy rate next week. Overall, investors will look for any signs of market bottom. Valuations for many markets provide a major comfort to investors at a time of heightened volatility.