Tadawul Review:
Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) ended the last day of April positively on Sunday, rising +37 points (+0.3%) to close at 11,308 levels, capping the monthly gains at +718 points (MoM: +6.8%, YTD: +7.9%). TASI had opened the session positively by 30 points from the previous close and continued to rise to reach its intraday high at 11,350 before it went down. In general, 15 out of 20 sectors closed in the green zone, while 131 stocks rose and 76 fell. Banks (+0.4%), Materials (+0.5%), and Energy (+0.8%) sectors contributed the most to the index's rise of +31 points. Stockwise, Aramco (+0.8%), Saudi National Bank (+1.0%), and Sulaiman Al Habib (+2.8%) contributed most to the rise of the index. The trading activity witnessed a decline in volume and value by -16% and -18%, respectively, to reach 174mn shares and SAR5.2bn in value traded. TASI has increased 12% in the past two months. While ongoing earning season may offer room for further upside from current levels, the risk of index loosing is growing. Key near-term risks to market include volatility in international markets and downside in commodity prices.
The global equity indices will be squarely focused on the upcoming monetary policy decision by the Fed and ECB next week. The two central banks are expected to sustain the monetary tightening cycle. The Fed is expected to lift rates by another 25bps before giving a possible signal for pause. On the other hand, ECB is expected to downshift the rate hike cycle to 25bps from 50bps. The ripple effects of monetary policy decisions and the accompanying commentary for the rationales of the decision may continue for the rest of the week. Overall, the equity benchmarks are likely to react in both cases. Beyond policy rate hike, both the regions will see announcement of Mar-end results from a number of companies besides important economic data release. This includes more labor market and ISM data in the U.S and CPI data in Europe. The smooth resolution of the crisis at yet another mid-sized bank in the U.S remains crucial for the stability in the market. Equity markets in both regions may see negative effects from the renewed stress in the banking system.
In Asia, the disappointment from recently released manufacturing data in China may impact the equity indices in the region. The investors will also closely track the monetary policy decision from the global central banks. Overall, markets are likely to wobble before seeing relative stability.