Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) underwent yet another volatile session and fell 77 points (-0.7%) on Sunday to close at 11,632 levels. TASI opened the session on a positive note and continued to rise in the first hour of trading, to reach its intraday high of +64 points. Then, TASI started declining for the rest of the trading hours, retreating 142 points from its intraday high. In general, 9 out of 20 sectors closed in the green zone, while 97 stocks rose and 103 stocks fell. The decline was led by the Banks (-1.5%), followed by the Real Estate (-2.5%), and Insurance (-1.2%) sectors, which contributed to the decline of the index by a total of 78 points. Amongst stocks, Saudi National Bank (-3.3%), followed by Al Rajhi Bank (-1.3%), and Saudi British Bank (-2.8%), pulled the index down the most. Trading activity witnessed a significant decline in the volume and value of trade -44 % and -46%, respectively, to reach 104mn shares and SAR3.8bn. The disappointing results from Materials (petrochem) and no major positive surprise in banks have dragged TASI in recent sessions. TASI may remain directionless in the near-term with a major Fed decision due later this week.
The next ahead for the global equity indices will be dominated by economic data on inflation, policy rate decisions by both Fed and BOE, start of quantitative tightening in the U.K and progress on economic plans by the new government in the U.K. In the U.S, the Fed is all set to lift rate by another 75bps in its two-day meeting starting Tuesday. Fed dot plot, or guidance for markets for future rate hike, has assumed greater importance in the backdrop of market’s widely held view Fed may slow down the pace of future hikes. A dovish guideline relative to previous issuance may trigger further recovery in the markets. The earnings print in the U.S is skewed towards energy and healthcare while labor market and ISM data are the two of the more important points to look forward to next week.
In the Euro region, BOE is expected to accelerate the pace of rate hike to 75bps in response to inflation pressure. Investors are closely tracking newsflow (windfall levy on energy or financial companies) on the new economic plans to plug the revenue gap in the U.K and any change in plans by BoE for the start of planned quantitative tightening next week. Euro has slipped back under parity against USD. The inflation data in the region is due next week along with growth estimates for 3Q.
In Asia, the sell-off has continued unabated with dual concerns on growth and currency. In absence of any major economic data or central banks’ policy actions in the region, the focus is likely to be on earnings and China COVID policy besides policy decisions in the U.S and U.K. Valuation in the region remains attractive and earnings season has the potential to pare some of the losses suffered by the markets in recent sessions.